McLaren Miami GP Upgrade has become a headline topic in the lead up to this weekend’s F1 Grand Prix, with a feeling among many that the Woking-based team stands a chance to finally seriously push Mercedes. The recent calendar swap imposed an unexpected five week break on the teams, giving them valuable time to collect and process data on the previous car, and develop new packages.

That break may be worth millions for McLaren. Already team chief executive officer Andrea Stella has proclaimed the new package as a “new car” and a set of inspired designs should deliver big progress at a track where McLaren has had recent success.

First, that couldn’t have come at a better time for McLaren. The opening rounds of the season highlighted that the team needed to improve its performance relative to Mercedes, especially when it came to qualifying and stamina. McLaren were competitive but did not have the whole package to frequently challenge the leaders. The month has afforded the engineers enough time to work on the car, bringing substantial aerodynamic and setup modifications to Miami, rather than incremental refinements.

Former IndyCar racer and F1 TV host James Hinchcliffe estimates the Miami Grand Prix may be McLaren’s best hope. Hinchcliffe sees the break as the equivalent of a fresh restart to the F1 season. The teams have been able to start again with new ideas, new solutions and the potential to wrest momentum. In this regard, McLaren could be the biggest winner given the extent of the changes planned to the car.

Miami has also been good for McLaren. It has won both the last two times it has raced there and the mix of mid-speed corners, grip points and straights has suited their car. In F1, confidence is crucial, and starting out with good recent history can boost both crews and pilots.

But there’s Mercedes to fear. They have been quick this year, and better adapted to changing conditions than some other teams. McLaren know that it is not enough to improve their car. The other half of the challenge is finding sufficient speed to overtake a team that is highly competitive. So this weekend in Miami will potentially become an indicator of the rest of McLaren’s season.

But Jolyon Palmer, former F1 driver, added an important detail: it is unlikely that McLaren didn’t have this race in mind as a development target well before the season started. The team could have been content with taking a step back because they would update with significant new parts for this race. If that’s the case, it was even more savvy, given the Middle East races have given them more time to develop the package.

The second point is more practice. Major new parts will soon arrive, and every second on track is precious. Add more laps and it’s easier for the engineers to get a feel for balance shifts, how the tyres perform and what tweaks are needed. For a team bringing fundamental changes, that’s equivalent to valuable parts. If McLaren begin to perform well in practice, they could be a threat come qualifying.

The abilities of McLaren’s drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will also come into focus. Norris knows he can take advantage of opportunities in Miami and Piastri is on his way to becoming one of the most well-rounded young drivers on the grid. If the new car delivers, McLaren could have two drivers battling for the lead.

Finally, Miami could impact the grander narrative. If McLaren narrows the gap or outperforms Mercedes was speed, the title race will be very different. In Formel 1, momentum can change rapidly when development races start. But if it doesn’t, it’s less likely to be recovered in the second half of the season.

So much is at stake. Miami isn’t just a race, it’s a potential determining factor for McLaren in 2016. Having a new car, additional time and familiarity with the track, they have the chance.

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